.svg)
Stay in the know with hidden historical data that is analyzed for you.
© 2025 Insider Analytics. All rights reserved.
How to Build a Winning Sports Betting System
Consistency
The best systems show stable performance over multiple seasons, not just one particularly good stretch. Look for signs that oddsmakers are adjusting lines to address previously exploited angles, as that can erode a system’s long-term edge.
Sample Size
A larger dataset provides more reliable insights and reduces the chance that short-term luck skews your results. Gather as many relevant data points as possible to more accurately predict whether a system can maintain profitability over time.
Refinement
Once you've built a system, the work isn't over. Betting systems are not static—they may need periodic adjustments to remain effective. As you gain experience, testing and tweaking different variables will help refine your strategy, improving its long-term profitability.
Example
High winds create value on unders in college football games.
1. Establish the Why
Why would this system work? In college football, strong winds may have a bigger impact than in professional leagues since players aren’t as skilled at adjusting to the weather. If sportsbooks fail to account for this, value may exist on unders in high-wind games.
2. Build the Base System
- Click “Build” in the system builder tool.
- Name the system and select NCAAF as the sport.
- Choose over/under as the bet type.
- Navigate to “Line Info” and select under.
- Go to “Weather” and add a filter for average wind speed ≥ 10 mph.
3. Add Filters to Improve Profitability
Once the base system is set, refine it further by testing correlated factors:
- Closing Total Range: Do high-wind unders perform better in games with higher or lower totals?
- Team Strength: Are weaker teams or Group of Five conferences more affected by wind?
- Play Style: Do pass-heavy teams struggle more in high winds? Apply a filter for teams averaging above-league-average passing yards per game.
- Temperature: Does wind have a bigger impact in extreme cold or heat? Test for games below freezing or above 70°F.
4. Analyze and Adjust
Theories aren't always straightforward. For example:
- Why do road favorites perform well in the NHL? It could be that sportsbooks overvalue home-ice advantage, leading to better betting opportunities on road favorites.
- Why do overs hit when both teams have gone under in three straight games? Oddsmakers and the public may be overreacting to recent performances, setting the total too low.
Our Custom Systems
Add these to your own Action Labs dashboard so you can get system picks like we do!
Moneyline
Favorites vs home teams off a home win, 2nd half of season
Win Rate:
73
%
ROI:
15
%
- 73% win rate, 15% ROI
- Team’s ML is between -115 and -290
- Opponent is playing at least their 2nd consecutive home game
- Opponent won their previous game
- Game is in-conference
- Game #42 or later
- Total below 225
Moneyline
Favorites off a loss as a favorite vs dogs off a win as a dog
Win Rate:
70
%
ROI:
17
%
- Team’s ML is between -115 and -205
- Team lost as the favorite in their previous game
- Team’s previous game was non-division
- Opponent won as the underdog in their previous game
- At least 33% of public bets are on the team’s ML
Moneyline
Fading home teams that just snapped a 4+ game losing streak
Win Rate:
68
%
ROI:
18
%
- Team’s ML is between -100 and -170
- Opponent won their previous game
- Opponent has lost 4 out of their last 5 games
- Opponent is at home
Spread
Road favorites with a lower win%
Win Rate:
65
%
ROI:
27
%
- Team’s spread is between -1.5 and -12.5
- Team is playing their 1st or 2nd consecutive road game
- Team’s win% is below their opponent’s by more than 5%
Spread
Road favorites off a loss as a favorite, late season
Win Rate:
63
%
ROI:
23
%
- Team’s spread is between -2.5 and -17
- Team is playing the 1st or 2nd consecutive game on the road
- Team lost their previous game
- Team’s spread was between -3 and -17 in their previous game
- Game # 50 or later
Spread
In-conference favorites vs above .500 teams on a 3 game win streak
Win Rate:
62
%
ROI:
19
%
- Team is favored by at least 4.5 points
- Game is in-conference
- Opponent has won each of their last 3 games
- Opponent’s win% is above 50%
- No major line movement
- No first 15 games of the season
Spread
Non-division road favorites vs teams off a win
Win Rate:
62
%
ROI:
20
%
- Team’s spread is between -3.5 and -11
- Team is on the road, playing no more than their 3rd straight road game
- Game is non-division
- Opponent won their previous game
- Game #30 or later
Spread
Wide non-conference underdogs
Win Rate:
61
%
ROI:
19
%
- Team’s spread is at least +11.5 or more
- Game is non-conference
- Team’s win% is at least 30%
Spread
Road favs off a road win vs home dogs off a home loss
Win Rate:
60
%
ROI:
17
%
- Team’s spread is between -1 and -8
- Team is playing at least their 2nd consecutive road game
- Team won their previous game
- Opponent is playing at least their 2nd consecutive home game
- Opponent lost their previous game
- Total is below 230
Moneyline
Favorites vs .500 or worse teams on a 3 game W streak
Win Rate:
67
%
ROI:
11
%
- Team’s ML is between -113 and -245
- Team’s win% is at least 40%
- Opponent’s win% is no higher than 50%
- Opponent has won 3 straight games
- Since 2010
Moneyline
In-conference favorites on a 3+ game L streak
Win Rate:
61
%
ROI:
10
%
- Team is favored up to -155
- Game is in-conference Team has lost 3 or more straight games
- Regular or postseason
Moneyline
Favorites off a blowout loss vs opponents off a blowout win
Win Rate:
66
%
ROI:
13
%
- Team’s ML is between -120 and -170
- Team lost their previous game by 3 or more goals
- Opponent won their previous game by 3 or more goals
Moneyline
Road favs vs teams on a b2b, no road streaks
Win Rate:
71
%
ROI:
19
%
- Team is playing their 1st or 2nd consecutive game on the road
- Team’s ML is between -125 and -195
- Opponent is on the 2nd night a back to back
- Team is receiving more than 45% of public bets
- Team has had no more than 3 days rest
Moneyline
Road favs vs teams on a b2b
Win Rate:
69
%
ROI:
14
%
- Team’s ML is between -125 and -235
- Team is on the road
- Opponent is playing their 2nd game of a b2b
Moneyline
Fading teams heading home off a win after a long road streak
Win Rate:
68
%
ROI:
22
%
- Team is favored up to -165
- Team is on the road
- Opponent is playing their first game at home after a 4+ game road streak
- Opponent won their previous game
Moneyline
Wide road in-division favorites, no home/road streaks
Win Rate:
72
%
ROI:
14
%
- Game is in-division
- Team’s ML is between -150 and -215
- Team is on the road
- Neither team is playing their 4th+ consecutive game at home or on the road
Moneyline
Road favs recently scoring, no win streaks or elite teams
Win Rate:
66
%
ROI:
11
%
- Team has scored 3+ goals in 3+ straight games
- Team’s ML is between -120 and -225
- Team is on the road
- Team is NOT on a 3+ game win streak
- Team’s win % is no higher than 66%
Moneyline
Road teams off a road win vs home teams off a home loss
Win Rate:
70
%
ROI:
16
%
- Team’s ML is between -120 and -255
- Team is coming off of a win
- Playing at least their 2nd consecutive game on the road
- Opponent is coming off of a loss
- Playing at least their 2nd consecutive game at home
- Less than 75% of bets are on team’s ML
OU
Home favorites vs teams on a winning streak
Win Rate:
62
%
ROI:
20
%
- Home team is favored up to -220
- Road team in on a 5+ game win streak
- Total is at least 7.5
- No more than 50% of public bets on the under
- No first 40 games of the season
Moneyline
Favorites in a battle between good starting pitchers
Win Rate:
66
%
ROI:
11
%
- Team’s ML is between -115 and -215
- Both team’s SP have an ERA of 3.5 or lower
- Team won their previous game
- No first 45 games of season
Moneyline
Road favorites starting a pitcher with a 5+ ERA
Win Rate:
66
%
ROI:
12
%
- Team’s ML is between -125 and -245
- Team is on the road
- Team’s SP has an ERA of 5 or more
- Last 15 seasons
Moneyline
Home teams trying to avoid a sweep, last 5 seasons
Win Rate:
73
%
ROI:
24
%
- Team is favored up to -240
- Team is off a loss of more than 1
- Team has lost back to back games
- 3rd game of series
- Last 5 seasons
Moneyline
Roadstreaking favorites vs terrible teams, not off blowout win or loss
Win Rate:
74
%
ROI:
12
%
- Team’s ML is between -155 and -365
- Team is playing at least their 4th consecutive road game
- Opponent’s win% is below 33%
- Team’s previous game margin is between -6 and +6
OU
Windy unders, neither team made postseason
Win Rate:
61
%
ROI:
17
%
- Total is no higher than 45
- Wind speed is at least 10 mph
- No domes
- Neither team made the playoffs in the prior season
Moneyline
Road favorites off a loss
Win Rate:
71
%
ROI:
13
%
- Team’s ML is between -110 and -300
- Team is on the road
- Team lost their previous game
- Total is between 42 and 56
- Team is receiving more than 45% of public bets
Spread
Teams off a blowout loss ATS as favorites, close spread no high totals
Win Rate:
61
%
ROI:
18
%
- The spread is between -6.5 and +6.5
- Team was favored by between -2 and -16.5 points in their previous game
- Team failed to cover the spread by at least 14 points in their previous game
- Total is no higher than 46 points
