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The Seed Sheet
Historical ML & ATS data for any seed, in any round
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16 Seed
R4
16 Seed, Final 4
Never made it.
16 Seed
R8
16 Seed, Elite 8
Never made it.
16 Seed
R16
16 Seed, Sweet 16
Never made it.
16 Seed
R32
16 Seed, Round of 32
Vs 9 seeds: 0-2 SU / ATS: 2-0
% chance of making it to R32: 2.6%
16 Seed
R64
16 Seed, Round of 64
Vs 1 seeds: 2-73 SU / ATS: 36-39-1
% chance of making it to R64: 100%
15 Seed
R4
15 Seed, Final 4
Never made it.
15 Seed
R8
15 Seed, Elite 8
Vs 8 seeds: 0-1 SU / ATS: 0-1
% chance of making it to R8: 1.3%
15 Seed
R16
15 Seed, Sweet 16
Vs 3 seeds: 1-2 SU / ATS: 3-0
Vs 6 seeds: 0-1 SU / ATS: 0-1
% chance of making it to R16: 5.3%
15 Seed
R32
15 Seed, Round of 32
Vs 7 seeds: 4-1 SU / ATS: 7-1
Vs 10 seeds: 0-2 SU / ATS: 0-2
% chance of making it to R32: 9.2%
15 Seed
R64
15 Seed, Round of 64
Vs 2 seeds: 7-69 SU / ATS: 37-36-3
% chance of making it to R64: 100%
14 Seed
R4
14 Seed, Final 4
Never made it.
14 Seed
R8
14 Seed, Elite 8
Never made it.
Our March Madness Brackets
Click to expand full bracket
The Specialist
The Buster
The Moon of Madness:
Why Extreme Identity Wins in March
The Moon of Madness is a way to identify teams built for success in March Madness by analyzing two key stats: True Shooting Percentage (TS%) and Free Throw Attempt Rate (FTr). Teams that fall inside the crescent-shaped "moon" on a graph of these stats tend to have extreme identities—either elite shooting efficiency (high TS%) or an aggressive, foul-drawing style (high FTr). This matters because tournament success often favors teams that lean into a clear and dominant strength rather than being balanced but unremarkable.
A team like Tennessee, for example, has a low TS% but a sky-high FTr, meaning they play a tough, physical style that forces free throws and grinds out wins. Meanwhile, Georgia has a better TS% but lacks an extreme strength in either category, making them less distinct. History suggests that teams with Tennessee’s profile—those that fully embrace a unique identity—tend to fare better in March, while teams like Georgia, stuck in the middle, often struggle when the competition stiffens.
The reason this works is that March Madness rewards teams that know exactly who they are. A team that specializes in efficient shooting can survive cold stretches by still generating high-percentage looks, while a team that thrives on free throws and physicality can wear down opponents even if their shots aren’t falling. On the other hand, teams that don’t fully commit to one side or the other often lack a reliable fallback when faced with elite defenses.
The big takeaway? Final Four teams overwhelmingly fit inside this Moon. It’s not just about being statistically good—it’s about being built to win six straight games in a chaotic tournament setting. Teams in the Moon have battle-tested styles that hold up under pressure, while teams outside of it might look good on paper but lack the clear strengths needed to survive deep into March.
A team like Tennessee, for example, has a low TS% but a sky-high FTr, meaning they play a tough, physical style that forces free throws and grinds out wins. Meanwhile, Georgia has a better TS% but lacks an extreme strength in either category, making them less distinct. History suggests that teams with Tennessee’s profile—those that fully embrace a unique identity—tend to fare better in March, while teams like Georgia, stuck in the middle, often struggle when the competition stiffens.
The reason this works is that March Madness rewards teams that know exactly who they are. A team that specializes in efficient shooting can survive cold stretches by still generating high-percentage looks, while a team that thrives on free throws and physicality can wear down opponents even if their shots aren’t falling. On the other hand, teams that don’t fully commit to one side or the other often lack a reliable fallback when faced with elite defenses.
The big takeaway? Final Four teams overwhelmingly fit inside this Moon. It’s not just about being statistically good—it’s about being built to win six straight games in a chaotic tournament setting. Teams in the Moon have battle-tested styles that hold up under pressure, while teams outside of it might look good on paper but lack the clear strengths needed to survive deep into March.
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Questions and Answers
Unveiling Answers to your frequently asked questions
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