Ref Assignments & Betting Trends
Here are today's official NBA referee assignments and there corresponding betting data! All betting figures associated with each ref are from the previous 5 seasons, including this year. After getting a good idea of how each of today's ref's lean, keep reading for a more in-depth preview on one of these matchups.
Some records may be slightly off due to closing line variations on different books*
7pm - Houston @ Indiana: James Williams (#60)
Home ML: 151-121 / Home ATS: 141-126-6 / O-U: 132-140-2
7pm - Toronto @ Orlando: Ben Taylor (#46)
Home ML: 156-111 / Home ATS: 129-132-6 / O-U: 134-131-2
730pm - Milwaukee @ Atlanta: Pat Fraher (#26)
Home ML: 135-119 / Home ATS: 121-128-5 / O-U: 127-127
730pm - Golden State @ New York: Kevin Scott (#24)
Home ML: 138-118 / Home ATS: 119-131-6 / O-U: 132-119-5
8pm - Cleveland @ Chicago: Courtney Kirkland (#61)
Home ML: 134-127 / Home ATS: 110-145-6 / O-U: 112-146-4
8pm - Philadelphia @ Minnesota: Josh Tiven (#58)
Home ML: 158-135 / Home ATS: 139-151-3 / O-U: 147-145-2
830pm - Brooklyn @ San Antonio: David Guthrie (#16)
Home ML:116-119 / Home ATS: 100-122-3 / O-U: 118-106-2
10pm - LA Clippers @ Phoenix: Brian Forte (#45)
Home ML: 155-131 / Home ATS: 147-133-6 / O-U: 125-157-4
1030pm - New Orleans @ L.A. Lakers: Karl Lane (#77)
Home ML: 163-119 / Home ATS: 140-136-6 / O-U: 145-137-2
Game Preview: Brooklyn (+3.5) @ San Antonio (-3.5) with David Guthrie
Now you might be thinking, "wow, such a boring matchup," but guess what, it's matchups like these that tend to bring in the coin - especially when the right trends are in-play. We're gonna talk about public bettors first, then we'll go into more detail about David Guthrie and how his trends may have some correlation with tonight's public sentiment.
First of all, it's important to note that most of tonight's bettors are siding with the Spurs. Currently, Spurs -3.5 has 73% of bets and 71% dollars. Spurs ML looks fairly similar with 81% of bets and 69% of dollars. The Over-Under is something I'm not too worried about so we're going to leave those splits out for now.
Anyways, these public percentages are important because of how the lines are moving. As of now, Nets spread has dropped from +5.5 (open) to +3.5, and Nets ML has dropped from +185 (open) to +140, which tells us one thing and one thing only - Vegas does not respect the public money backing the spurs.
At first glance, both Nets Spread and ML seem like pretty sharp plays, but let's go into more detail with our ref for tonight before we pull any triggers. David Guthrie is a tenured NBA head official who has years of officiating experience under his belt, and one thing I know for sure is that he loves away teams. Since the 20-21' NBA season, visiting teams have a 122-100-3 ATS record with Guthrie as the head official, which jumps to 42-29-1 in the previous 2 years -including this year.
While it's important to note a referee's basic ATS trends, the basic ATS trends aren't the only thing we should be looking at when it comes to Guthrie and his trends, so let's take a deeper dive. In the previous 5 years, Guthries' ATS record for visiting teams jumps to 40-24-1 when the visiting team is getting less than 35% of dollars, and if you remember correctly, Nets Spread currently has 29% of dollars and 27% of bets - it's looking pretty good for Nets spread bettors right now, but we're not stopping there. Under Guthrie, Contrarian visitors perform even better when they are a dog of more than +2.5, boasting an ATS record of 34-16-1 with a 31% ROI - a figure we are definitely paying attention to.
There's one question that comes to mind when reading these Guthrie stats: What about his referee style allows for public bettors to get jammed time and time again when he is the head official? In my opinion, it's his lack of penalty calling that gives these contrarian away teams an edge. This year, Guthrie ranks 5th for the least amount of penalties called p/game, and his split for % of penalties called on home v away teams is fairly even - something we don't see very often in the NBA. His lack of penalty calling actually allows for less variance during the time of play, and since home teams are usually the beneficiaries of the bulk of penalties called, it makes sense that his more lenient referee style trends towards visiting teams covering - especially undervalued ones like the Nets.
With Vegas clearly siding with the small minority on Nets +3.5, and with Guthrie having favorable trends for Nets ATS (visiting, contrarian, underdogs), Nets +3.5 (-110 FD) is my play of the night. If you are feeling extra frisky you can always take them on the ML for +140, but if you do that, lower your units at risk!
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