Overview

When it comes to betting on tennis, there are countless factors from rankings, to recent matches, serve data, location, etc. that one can look at to inform their decisions when placing bets. That said, your average tennis bettor wants to do minimal research before placing their bets, and looking through all the metrics and raw data for each player in a given tournament is often far too time-consuming and overwhelming. Luckily there are a plethora of “head to head” (h2h) websites that consolidate player data into easy-to-read graphics and numbers. Take the ATP Tour website for example (ATP Tour H2H), their H2H page allows you to search for and analyze upcoming player matchups easily. It includes past matchup results, ranking, age, career record, prize money, etc. Although this page from the tour’s website may look like more than enough information for a bettor, it is in fact mostly just filler information packaged into a neat-looking web page that fools many into thinking their bets are thoroughly researched.  

Background

Unlike most sports, tennis is year-round, usually with more than one professional tournament taking place each week. The year is split into three seasons (hard, clay, and grass). Each one of these surfaces demands different playing styles; a strong flat forehand may prove superior on hard concrete courts, a high spinner will prove more fruitful on the slower clay courts, while a swift and powerful slice is what allowed Serena to win on the Wimbledon grass an astounding seven times. 

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With each surface requiring some amount of specialization, it can be extremely difficult for a player to master all three. Most, if not all, players have a preferred surface that they perform their best on. For example, Rafael Nadal (who was world #1 for 209 weeks) grew up playing on clay courts and as you would expect, Nadal dominated the clay courts. Of his 22 major titles, a record 14 were won on clay. Although Nadal is somewhat of an outlier, his domination helps to show how much the playing surface can influence the outcome of a match or tournament. However, the ATP H2H site and many other third-party sites fail to even mention the playing surface, let alone historical data for the players’ stats on each surface. 

How Important is the Playing Surface?

To further understand how much the playing surface matters, let me draw your attention to a recent (8/7/2024) National Bank Open match between Ons Jabeur and Naomi Osaka (played on hard courts). At first glance on the WTA website, it is easy to assume that Jabeur would probably win the match. The two had only played once before, and most of the given stats are extremely similar except for one: Jabeur is ranked 16 in the world to Osaka’s 95. With this being the main difference we see on this page, it would be easy to assume that Jabeur would likely win (Jabeur in purple, Osaka in black WTA H2H). However, if we dive a little deeper into the stats, using a database like Tennis Abstract we find that in the 2024 season, Ons Jabeur has a 2-6 record on hard courts to Osaka’s 8-7. 

Osaka won the match in straight sets (6-3, 6-1).

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