93% System Overview

This specific system we have in-play for the Sweet 16 is special for 2 reasons: It has an incredibly high win rate, and it's an infamous "fade" system - meaning the intention was to build an awful system then "fade" it's active plays. Before getting into the 2 teams active for this system, I'm going to cover the systems parameters and its all-time records. Reminder, this is a fade system, the parameters I'm going to list out are for teams we are staying away from and betting against.

System Record: 3-39 ML / 14-27 ATS
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Parameter 1) Teams spread is +2.5   or greater
Parameter 2) Teams ATS streak is 2 games (have covered 2 games in a row)
Parameter 3) Teams previous game spread was between -4.5 and +4
Parameter 4) Round is the Sweet 16, Elite 8, or Final 4.
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To sum it up, in the Sweet 16, underdogs of +2.5 or more who have covered in their previous 2 games are 3-39 SU and 14-27 ATS, as long as their last game had a tight spread. This very poor performing system is active on 2 teams: BYU and Kentucky. So guess what? We're going to be taking the opposite side.

The Plays

The system from above has a 7% ML hit rate and a 34% ATS hit rate, flip it around, and we've got ourselves some very high win rates. Both the 93% ML and 66% ATS versions of this system land on Alabama and Tennessee - which are great teams to say the least. In this case, because this system is great on both the ML and the Spread, there are multiple ways we can "play" these plays.

Alabama is a -4.5 favorite, and Tennessee, in a similar spot, is currently sitting at -4 on most books. This brings up an important question: How do we bet on both of these teams and give ourselves the most edge? It's a valid question, and I believe I have the answer. Favorites have been on fire all tournament long, and I don't think that's going to be stopping anytime soon - let's just say NIL money has changed the game quite a bit. Anyways, I know parlays are never the way to go, but in this situation, I genuinely think a 2-leg is going to give us the most edge. If you are a risk adverse person, I'd recommend taking the ML for both teams as high unit singles - although the juice is so high that losing one would result in a loss almost as grave as just losing the 2-leg, which is why I like the parlay here.

We can combine Alabama (-200) and Tennessee (-195) on FanDuel for +128, which I absolutely love. Funny enough, both BYU +4.5 and Kentucky +4 have 64% of the public's dollars - a metric that we should definitely consider. I think the books are okay paying out juiced favorites over widely public spreads, and if you've been following us for a while, we tend to stay away from heavy public backed spreads or totals. Not to mention, there's a massive amount of recency bias surrounding BYU, who is coming off of a big win against 3 seed Iowa St, and Kentucky, who is coming off of a big win against 6 seed Illinois - this makes me want to take the other side even more, which is why I'm fully confident backing the Bama ML and Tenn ML combo.

Summary

Alabama & Tennessee 2-leg ML parlay (+128 FD) is one of our best plays for the Sweet 16. Not only is there a 93% ML win-rate / 66% ATS cover rate system in-play on both of these teams, but their opponents are getting a heavy dose of recency bias evident by the percentage of public dollars on both teams spreads. Parlay aside, both of these games are going to be exciting to watch and I'm glad you guys are coming along for the ride!

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